WILLAI DELBERT GANN

In December 1909, Ticker and Investment Digest published an interview by Richard D. Wyckoff highlighting W.D. Gann’s uncanny market forecasts. Gann had publicly demonstrated a series of precise predictions in stocks and commodities that year, often hitting exact price targets or timing major moves. Some notable examples include:

Stock Price Targets: When New York Central was trading at 131, Gann forecast it would rise to 145 before declining to 129 – which proved correct.

In 1908, with Union Pacific at 168⅛, he predicted it would not touch 169 before a substantial drop; indeed, it fell to 152⅝, allowing profits on short sales. He similarly told a colleague that U.S. Steel (around $50) would climb to $58 but not reach $59, then plunge about 16 points – the stock topped out at 58 and subsequently collapsed to $41

Commodity Forecasts: Gann projected a big rise in wheat prices. For example, when wheat was ~$0.89, he predicted the May Wheat futures would reach $1.35; the market eventually hit exactly $1.35. In another instance, he boldly stated that September 1909 Wheat would trade at $1.20 by month’s end. On September 30, the final trading hour of the month, wheat suddenly rallied and peaked at $1.20 (and no higher), fulfilling his forecast to the cent

This dramatic call – essentially a year-ahead target price – astonished observers and was later cited in the financial press as evidence of his predictive skill

Market Timing: Gann didn’t just predict prices but also timing. He calculated in advance the exact day a market rally would top in August 1909 and the level of the Dow Jones average on that day. Impressively, the market peaked on the forecasted day and within 0.4% of Gann’s predicted Dow level. Such timing accuracy was virtually unheard of at the time.

Live Trading Demonstration: Perhaps most striking was Gann’s October 1909 trading test observed by a Ticker magazine representative. Over 25 trading days, Gann executed 286 trades (both long and short) in various stocks, winning on 264 trades and losing on only 22 – a success rate above 92%. His starting capital was doubled ten times over that month (a 1000% gain).  Witnesses noted Gann would often pinpoint intraday turning points; on one occasion he gave 16 consecutive trade orders in a single stock, and 8 of those trades caught the exact top or bottom eighth of the price swing

In two cases, he called turning points to the eighth of a point: e.g. selling U.S. Steel at 94⅞ with the assertion “it will not go to 95” – and indeed it peaked at 94⅞ before dropping

 Such feats were documented and verified by the magazine, which stated these results were “unparalleled in the history of the Street”

Overall, the 1909 article emphasized that “Mr. Gann’s predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances.”

While no trader is infallible, Gann’s early track record – as reported in 1909 – was extraordinarily accurate, lending credibility to his claim of a scientific forecasting method.

Time Cycles, Mathematics, and the “Law of Vibration”

W.D. Gann attributed his forecasting ability to an innovative analytical method grounded in geometry, mathematics, cycles, and what he termed the “law of vibration.” In the 1909 interview, Gann explained that after years of studying historical market data (even researching price records back to 1820), he concluded that natural laws govern market movements

Key aspects of his stated methodology include:

Periodic Cycles: Gann observed recurring price patterns and cycles in market history. He noted “periodical recurrence” of rises and falls in stocks and commodities, suggesting a cyclic law underlying these movements

He gave credit to contemporary cycle research (e.g. the “Cycles of Prosperity and Depression” identified by Henry Hall) and claimed his own discovery could forecast not just long-term cycles but even “daily and hourly movements”. Gann believed major market swings are cyclical and repeat over time, often citing historic panics or highs that occurred in rhythmic intervals. (For example, he later pointed out the 1929 crash came 60 years after the 1869 panic and 30 years after 1899, reflecting a cycle

This focus on time cycles — from short-term oscillations to multi-decade intervals — was central to his forecasting approach.

Law of Vibration: According to Gann, each market instrument (stock or commodity) has its own unique vibration or energy signature that determines its price behavior

He asserted that “through the law of vibration, every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities… Stocks, like atoms, are really centers of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically”

In practical terms, he claimed to calculate the vibratory rate of a stock by analyzing numerical relationships (including past high/low price levels and time intervals), which enabled him to predict where and when that stock would meet resistance or support

Gann analogized this to concepts in physics – noting that just as wireless telegraphy or phonographs rely on vibration, market prices too oscillate in waves governed by natural law

He did not fully divulge the formula behind his Law of Vibration, calling it an “entirely new idea” and hinting that it involved advanced mathematics and principles of harmony

However, he stressed that nothing in the markets happens by chance: “mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things… Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law”

In essence, Gann viewed price movements as a manifestation of a cosmic or natural order that could be decoded with the right mathematical approach.

Mathematics and Geometry: Gann was a self-professed “gifted mathematician”

and his techniques heavily employed numerical relationships. For example, he often used geometric angles on charts (later known as Gann Angles or the “Gann fan”) to relate time and price. His philosophy was that markets are geometric in design, so equal intervals of time and price should be plotted uniformly.

A core idea was the 1×1 angle (45°) – signifying a balance of one unit of price per one unit of time – which he deemed an idealized equilibrium; a break of that angle could indicate a trend change.

He also made use of specialized numeric charts (e.g. the Square of 9 and other grids) to find repeating price-time cycles. Many of these tools (not elaborated in the 1909 interview, but revealed later) were ways to apply mathematical ratios, square roots, and geometric cycles to market forecasting. Gann’s blending of mathematics with cycle analysis even extended to astronomy/astrology – he believed planetary cycles sometimes influenced market rhythms

(For instance, he watched the 30-year cycle of Saturn or the 23-year cycle of sunspots in relation to market panics.) While skeptics found the astrological aspect unorthodox, Gann saw it as part of natural law. Overall, he maintained that by applying mathematical and geometric principles to historical price data, one could calculate in advance critical price levels and turning-point dates. His famous assertion was that “every effect must have an adequate cause” in the market

by identifying the timing cycles and price vibrations (the causes), one could forecast the resulting price moves (the effects)

In summary, Gann’s method combined deep historical research with a belief in repetitive natural cycles and mathematical harmony. He distilled this into a proprietary system (the Law of Vibration) that purportedly allowed him to predict market highs, lows, and turning dates with eerie precision. He presented speculation as a science, insisting that “to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law”rather than market hunches or tips. This scientific aura around his method was a hallmark of Gann’s persona – he often pointed to the exhaustive years of study and the mathematical logic behind his forecasts to explain their uncanny accuracy.

Additional Examples of Gann’s Forecasting Prowess

Beyond the 1909 demonstrations, Gann’s later career provides further instances where he appeared to anticipate major market events or historical turns with remarkable foresight. Several documented examples include:

World War I Forecast (1918): Gann ventured beyond finance when he reportedly predicted the end of World War I. In the spring of 1918, he forecast the abdication of Germany’s Kaiser and an end to the war by November 1918

This prediction was disseminated to newspapers nationwide, and indeed Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicated on November 9, 1918, with the Armistice ending WWI coming on November 11, 1918.

Contemporary accounts indicate Gann’s war forecast was recognized after the fact, suggesting he successfully applied his cycle analysis to global events as well as markets. (It’s worth noting Gann believed major wars and market panics were also cyclical; he often linked conflict cycles to economic cycles in his writings.)

“Tunnel Thru the Air” and a Future War (1927): In 1927 Gann published a curious science-fiction novel The Tunnel Thru the Air. While fictional, the book is laced with astrological dates and coded market philosophy. Many Gann followers believe this work forecast the onset of World War II, particularly the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941

In the novel, Gann describes a surprise aerial attack on the United States and a great war in the late 1930s, which in hindsight has parallels to the actual events of 1941–1945. This is a more speculative example, since the prediction was cloaked in fiction. However, Gann himself hinted that hidden within Tunnel Thru the Air were the “secret clues” to his forecasting method and future events – leading readers to comb it for encoded prophecies. Decades later, analysts noted the book’s eerie anticipation of air warfare and a conflict with Japan, believing Gann did successfully project the timing of WWII using his cycle theories

1929 Stock Market Crash: Perhaps Gann’s most famous financial call was for the great Crash of 1929. In late 1928, he issued an annual forecast (through his subscription **“Supply and Demand” newsletter) that outlined a major top in 1929. According to reports, Gann predicted the market would continue to rally to early April 1929, then suffer a sharp spring setback, resume rising to record highs by late summer (early September 1929), and afterward “the biggest stock market crash in history” would follow

This forecast proved remarkably prescient. The Dow Jones Industrials hit a then-record high in early September 1929 and soon after began the collapse that led to the October 1929 crash. Gann’s foresight was not a vague warning but a detailed roadmap: he pinpointed the April 1929 pullback (the market did break sharply in April-May 1929) and the final top around September 1929

Such accuracy earned Gann considerable fame. Decades later, financial writers noted that Gann “predicted the stock market would hit new highs until early April [1929]… then new highs until early September. Then it would top and afterward come the biggest crash in history”

His correct anticipation of 1929’s pivotal turns solidified his reputation as an elite forecaster.

Other Forecasts: Gann continued making annual predictions and market calls into the 1930s and 1940s. He is often credited with predicting the stock market bottom in mid-1932 (after the crash) and major turns during the Great Depression, though these calls are less documented in contemporary media. His 1940 annual forecast reportedly warned of war cycles culminating in the early 1940s. Additionally, Gann’s long-term cycle work led him to anticipate changes in commodity prices; for instance, he forecast a 1949 commodity boom and certain post-WWII economic shifts. During the 1920s he was said to maintain an 85% accuracy rate on his annual forecasts for stocks and commodities

While it’s hard to verify each claim, we do have evidence that subscribers valued his yearly outlooks. For example, the Wall Street Journal in 1910 referenced Gann’s knack for forecasting commodity prices a year in advance, citing how he had called for wheat to reach $1.20 on a specific date, which came to pass

Such instances contributed to Gann’s mystique as someone who “seems to predict the stock market decades into the future by looking decades into the past”

These examples, documented in various sources, showcase Gann applying his methods successfully to major events. Whether forecasting a market panic, a wartime turning point, or specific price targets, Gann repeatedly demonstrated a belief that “history repeats” in cycles. By all accounts, he attempted (and often managed) to anticipate those repetitions with uncanny timing. It’s important to note, however, that Gann was not publicly right 100% of the time (he had missed calls as well), but the magnitude of his correct predictions – especially when they defied the popular sentiment – left a strong historical impression.

Alignment with His Trading Principles and Philosophy

W.D. Gann’s successful predictions were not lucky guesses; they were the product of a coherent trading philosophy that he preached throughout his life. His forecasting feats aligned closely with the principles he espoused in his writings and trading courses:

Study and Preparation: Gann believed that speculation should be treated as a serious profession. In the 1909 interview, he noted that most losing traders jump in without sufficient knowledge, whereas successful professionals (lawyers, doctors, etc.) first devote years to study

Accordingly, he spent a decade researching market history and refining his methods before claiming consistent profits

This principle of rigorous preparation manifested in his forecasts – for instance, his ability to call the 1929 top was rooted in studying past boom-bust cycles (he scoured decades of data by hand)

Gann’s approach was essentially academic in the sense that he combed through archives and records to derive theories, much like a scientist testing a hypothesis. His success stories reinforced his mantra that deep research and respect for market history are crucial for trading.

Natural Law and Cause-Effect: A cornerstone of Gann’s philosophy was that markets are not random; they move according to natural laws and repeating causes. He often said “there is no chance in nature” – every effect (price movement) has a cause

This conviction drove him to find the causes (cycles, mathematical relationships) behind market effects. All his predictions – hitting exact prices or dates – reflect this deterministic outlook. Rather than reacting to news or rumors, Gann’s trades were based on his calculated “cause” (e.g. a cycle turning date), expecting the predicted “effect” (market reversal) to follow

His ability to stand by a forecast (such as insisting wheat must reach $1.20 by a deadline) shows the confidence he had in his principles of causation and vibration. In practice, this meant Gann was often contrarian: he would go short at a time of euphoria or long at a time of panic if his calculations indicated a cycle turn was due. This disciplined adherence to a rational principle – rather than emotion – was a key part of his trading philosophy.

Mathematics and Precision: Gann’s trading ethos held mathematics in almost sacred regard. He frequently quoted that “mathematical principles of the highest order” form the foundation of market movements

His belief that prices “vibrate” and repeat gave him a framework to trade with precision – setting specific entry/exit points. For example, his rule-based use of stop orders in the 1909 examples (placing a stop at $59 when shorting Steel at $58) shows mathematical risk management aligned to his forecast levels

Gann was known for writing detailed trading plans and price points ahead of time; this systematic, numbers-driven style was integral to both his philosophy and success. In essence, his famous calls validate his view that markets obey geometric or numeric patterns – allowing for precise predictions rather than vague forecasts. This aligns with his principle that one should trade scientifically, with exact calculations, instead of gambling.

Importance of Time: Among Gann’s oft-repeated maxims was that “time is the most important factor” in trading. He taught that correct timing of a trade could overcome other errors. All his major predictions had a timing element – he wasn’t just saying what price, but when. This stems from his philosophy that time cycles govern price. Thus, he balanced time and price in analysis (e.g. his use of the 1×1 time-price angle as an ideal trend line

The fact that he could predict dates (like an August 1909 top, or the 1929 turn) underscores how deeply this principle was embedded in his method. It also guided his trading practices: he would often exit trades by a certain time even if a price target hadn’t hit, because he believed nothing runs beyond its destined time cycle. This respect for timing is a core Gann principle reflected in all his forecasts.

Psychology and Discipline: Gann’s philosophies also extended to trader mentality. He advocated for discipline, a written trading plan, and emotional control – ideas quite advanced for his era. He warned against greed and fear, often saying that one must follow the plan (based on analysis) rather than market hype. His own trading in 1909 – taking profits systematically and re-entering on rebounds

– exemplified disciplined execution. Gann also emphasized risk management: using stops (as seen in his examples) and not over-leveraging. These practical principles ensured that even if his analysis was right, he would profit by managing the trade correctly. His predictions align with this because they were usually accompanied by a strategy (e.g. “sell short if price hits X with stop at Y”). In his books like Truth of the Stock Tape, he discussed following rules and not deviating – which was crucial to turning predictions into actual profits.

In summary, Gann’s celebrated predictions were a direct outgrowth of his trading philosophy: that speculation is a science of cause and effect, requiring rigorous study, timing, and strict discipline. He lived by the idea that markets are harmonious systems (much like music or astronomy), and a trader’s job is to understand that harmony. His successes – from 1909 through the 1920s – reinforced these beliefs and helped popularize concepts like cyclic analysis and geometrical charting in trading. Even today, many of Gann’s principles (e.g. the interplay of price and time, or the use of historical analogs) are reflected in technical analysis practices

Critiques and Skepticism of Gann’s Methods

Despite W.D. Gann’s remarkable track record on paper, there have always been skeptics who question the validity and reproducibility of his methods. Criticisms range from doubts about his actual trading profits to the opacity and complexity of his techniques. Key points of skepticism include:

Lack of Transparency: Gann was notably secretive about the exact mechanics of his “law of vibration” system. While he shared general principles, he never publicly revealed his full formula or reasoning, even selling expensive courses to those seeking his secrets. This secrecy led some to wonder if the method was as sound as claimed. Critics argue that if Gann’s system was truly scientific, it should be reproducible, yet no one has definitively replicated Gann’s level of predictive success using only his published rules. The heavy use of esoteric concepts (ancient geometry, astrology, biblical mathematics) in Gann’s work further alienated many orthodox economists. Scholars and empiricists often view Gann’s techniques with skepticism, noting that they lack rigorous statistical validation and rely on very subjective interpretation

For instance, identifying which cycle or which geometric angle is active at a given time can be hindsight-biased. As one trading author put it, Gann’s methods are so intricate and open-ended that “critics argue [his] success may have been due to luck or intuition rather than systematic application” of a proven system

In short, the scientific community has not embraced Gann’s law of vibration as a verifiable natural law – it remains a niche theory in trading, regarded by many as pseudoscientific.

Questionable Financial Success: There is debate over whether Gann himself made a great fortune from trading. While the 1909 Ticker Digest article lauded his profits and Gann later claimed substantial gains, some evidence suggests his wealth was moderate. Decades later, Wall Street veteran Alexander Elder investigated Gann’s legacy and even interviewed Gann’s son, John. Elder reported that John L. Gann stated his father “could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling courses.” Furthermore, when W.D. Gann died in 1955, his estate (including his home) was valued at only around $100,000 – a far cry from the tens of millions that legend attributes to him

This account, published in Trading for a Living (1993), portrays Gann more as a talented teacher/vendor than an unbeatable trader. Gann’s critics often cite this, suggesting that the “legend of W.D. Gann… is perpetuated by those who sell courses and paraphernalia to gullible customers” rather than by actual trading profits

In other words, skeptics suspect that Gann’s reputation was amplified by marketing – both his own (he did aggressively promote his books and services) and later by others who commercialize his name – and that his real trading results may not have consistently matched the hype.

Contemporary Skepticism: Even in Gann’s own time, not everyone was convinced. Some Wall Street traders likely dismissed his predictions as coincidence or clever showmanship. The Ticker article itself acknowledged that introducing a “scientific” idea in Wall Street could invite scorn

There were rumors that in the infamous wheat call of 1909, certain insiders might have orchestrated late-day trades to make the price hit $1.20 – essentially suggesting Gann’s forecast was “fulfilled” with a bit of help, though this remains anecdotal. More broadly, Gann’s reliance on astrology made many in the finance community view him with skepticism or amusement. Financial journalist Harlan Mathews, after visiting Gann in the 1940s, wrote that while Gann was serious about his method, the average person would find it “mystical” and hard to accept on faith. Additionally, some of Gann’s predictions did fail (which he admitted could happen). For example, if his calculations were off or an unprecedented event occurred, his forecast might not materialize – but critics note that these misses are less publicized than his hits.

Defenses and Counterpoints: Gann’s admirers respond to critiques by pointing out that Gann intentionally kept his core methodology private (to be sold or passed to select students), so judging its validity without full knowledge is difficult. They also note that Gann’s son John – the source of the estate criticism – had a personal falling-out with his father after working with him in the 1940s, which might have biased his statements

Moreover, Gann did enjoy a very long career (over 50 years in markets) and maintained a following, which would be unlikely if he were a fraud outright. Some of his clients and contemporary traders indeed profited from his advice, which lends anecdotal support that his methods had value. In the end, Gann sits in a unique spot in market lore: celebrated by many traders as a genius ahead of his time, yet viewed with skepticism by academics and others who find little concrete proof behind the legend. As one analysis concluded, the truth of his fortune “remains unclear,” but Gann’s legacy – “inflated or not” – continues to fascinate traders seeking an edge in the markets